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The Next Hot Herb
By Conrad Richter
With markets for former “hot herbs”
ginseng, St John’s wort and echinacea in over supply, and
prices and profits declining, growers are naturally interested
in what new herbs to grow.
I get asked a lot what I think the next “hot
herb” will be. St. John’s wort a few years ago was a
“hot herb” after it was touted on ABC-TV’s 20-20
program as a possible substitute for the anti-depressant drug
Prozac. It was breathtaking to see how a television show could
cause a sharp rise in the price and instant shortages. Hundreds
of growers jumped in, planting thousands of hectares, in the aftermath
of the market explosion. For a while, you could not even find
St. John’s wort seeds because so many growers were jumping
in.
So, what will be the next hot herb? A crystal
ball is little help.
Predicting the next hot herb is like picking
stocks, with all the risks that come with investing in the market.
In theory there are over 100,000 different herbs worldwide –
equal to the number of higher plants that are known to exist.
Virtually every plant has some medicinal or other use.
Believe it not, even noxious plants such as
poison ivy and quackgrass have a market. Poison ivy is used to
make homeopathic tinctures, and quackgrass is used for as a tonic
and for bladder, liver, gallbladder and spleen problems.
Of these 100,000 species, only a few thousand
are actually in commerce, and, for most, a modest demand is met
by established suppliers (from wild or cultivated sources) with
prices and volumes holding fairly steady. Lurking among these
herbs, though, is the next St. John’s wort – that much
my crystal ball will tell me.
In the stock market, analysts speak about
the “fundamentals”. They look at objective measures
of value such as the price-earnings ratio, measures that suggest
what the price targets should be. Of course the market does not
always dance to the tune of logic, and can easily go south in
spite of the analysts. Still, the “fundamentals” are
very useful to help grapple with the viscissitudes of the market.
I think we need to look at the “fundamentals”
of herbs and use them them to arrive at a logical assessment of
a herb’s market potential.
For example, in the era of aging baby-boomers
herbs that help to retard the aging process ought to be in demand.
Likewise, herbs that keep the mind alert, give the body energy,
and help to ward off pestilence ought to be in greater demand
because of the swell of aging baby boomers that are passing through
age 50. Herbs such as black cohosh have been touted as treatment
for the millions of women going through menopause, and indeed
there has been a steady increase in demand for this herb, and
more farmers are growing it in woodlands and under artificial
shade.
In fact there are hundreds of herbs that are
known to have the right fundamentals for an aging market. Any
one of them could justifiably be the next “hot herb”.
Gotu kola, for example, has plenty of clinical backing as an aid
for connective tissue, for aging bodies joints and ligaments,
and for worn out, wrinkled skin. So far gotu kola has not taken
off, but will it? I think it has the potential, but it may need
a jump start from a credible personality or other accident of
public attention.
In truth, growers prospecting for the next
“hot herb” cannot rely on the fundamentals alone. The
fundamentals can go a long way toward identifying good candidates,
but a herb may take years to take off, or may never take off.
Obviously no grower can grow on speculation
alone. Growers need the “bread and butter” herbs to
pay the bills. But it pays to dabble in a few good prospects,
learning as much as possible about growing and marketing them.
When and if a herb does take off, prospectors can expand quickly
to meet rising demand. Experience shows that the earliest to jump
in any market – from ginseng, to echinacea, to St. John’s
wort – have made big money while prices are high and competition
is low.
So where to find prospects? A good place to
start with is the research literature. Medline and other sources
are available free on the Internet. Increasingly, there are more
good books and monographs available. And your herb seed and plug
supplier can help you by suggesting the up and coming herbs to
try.
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